When machines rule

Unless the apocaplypse comes first it is an inevitability that machine intelligence will outpace the capabilities of the biological computer we call the brain. Probably in my lifetime. At this writing, I am 38-years-old.

The concern wasn’t so much that a super intelligence that exceeded or even matched human ability was coming – at least not right away.  Rather the immediate concern was that machines are right now making significant advances in several small niches of society that will seriously disrupt human labor demand, war tactics, and civilization as a whole.

Most people spend very little time thinking about the future. That is ill advised but it may also be of comfort to those who fear change. Most people will change the topic when I tell them that technology is going to produce longer lifespans and ability enhancements such as better eyesight, spine replacements, hearts that don’t suffer attacks and eventually backup copies of people. Artificially enhanced breasts, replacement hips and facial reconstructive surgery are infantile advancements. It is almost inevitable that humanity will move out of the human body, at least some of us will. What will we be then? Not human but what? Maybe we will be competing with or ruled by our creations and their offspring.

Machines have already made major inroads against a huge array human abilities and tasks.  Machines are largely making humans in the factory obsolete, as evidenced by the flexpicker and the kiva robots.  Robots are rapidly seeping into the worldwide war apparatus from many different angles, whether it be surveillance machines, armed drones, or advanced strategic planning bots.  From soccer, to surgery, to climbing, the list of robotic achievements goes on and on.  So what does the future hold for man and machine then?

Will machines ultimately match and then exceed human level intelligence?  I guarantee it!  Such a point in our future is called the singularity, and the real question is not if, but when and how it will happen.  Kurzweil and other singularity proponents will tell you that machines will match human intelligence in less than 30 years.  I think that is certainly possible, but it could also take much  longer.  At such a point it is impossible to tell what will happen, hence the reason it is called a singularity.

Worrying about what superintelligent machines will decide to do with the time, resources and CPU cycles available to them does not imbue my soul with a sense of forboding. Why? Because I’m pretty sure that they aren’t going to move to Washington, D.C. and spend all their time trying to micromanage my life. In fact, I’m hoping they’ll kick those do-gooders and busybodies out of their swamp. Bring on the machine intelligences!

Stealing time

Theft is generally considered an immoral act but if I could I would steal time from the universe. The longer I am here the clearer it becomes to me that the amount of time in a typical human lifespan will not be enough to satisfy me. I have not yet had time to learn to fly planes. I haven’t had the gathered the time or money to design and build my underground home. I’m still not a guitar player. I don’t even have my master’s degree yet. Everything feels rushed.

If I knew I’d have 500 years to figure out what I want to be when I grow up how would that change my outlook? How would it rearrange my life plans? What things would I do differently?

The more I think about time, the more I resent those who steal mine. Filling out forms, waiting in lines and being forced into activities that involve wait cycles or completely avoidable repetitive tasks irritate me in the extreme. I want my time for myself. I want to spend it doing the things I dream about. We should live longer than we do and reach higher than we do. Why is it so hard for humans to spend their time well? Perhaps because we do not teach the right things.

I want to become a time thief. I want a longer life.

I want to believe (in the Singularity)

We all want to believe in something bigger than ourselves. At least I think we do. We need purpose. Our feet get sore as we move forward through life and we need something just around the bend or over the hill to keep us going. There are tens of thousands of causes you can choose to champion in life. They come in all shapes and sizes and cost anywhere from nothing to everything. And then there are the singulatarians, an offshoot of the transhumanists. I am a transhumanist and a singulartarian because both ideas make sense to me.

What is a transhumanist?

Transhumanism is an international intellectual and cultural movement supporting the use of science and technology to improve human mental and physical characteristics and capacities. The movement regards aspects of the human condition, such as disability, suffering, disease, aging, and involuntary death as unnecessary and undesirable. Transhumanists look to biotechnologies and other emerging technologies for these purposes. Dangers, as well as benefits, are also of concern to the transhumanist movement.

What is a singulatarian?

Singularitarianism is a moral philosophy based upon the belief that a technological singularity — a theoretical future point that takes place during a period of accelerating change sometime after the creation of a superintelligence — is possible, and advocating deliberate action to bring such an entity into effect and ensure its safety.

While many futurists and transhumanists speculate on the possibility and nature of this technological development (often referred to as “the Singularity”), Singularitarians believe it is not only possible, but desirable if, and only if, guided safely. Accordingly, they might sometimes “dedicate their lives” to acting in ways they believe will contribute to its safe implementation.

There are many interesting aspects of both transhumanism and singulartarianism worth discussing seriously. Morally, ethically and sociologically these two worldviews represent change. Change is very scary. Change is very upsetting. Change can destabilize systems. Some people fight change as a matter of course because they are comfortable with who they are, with where they live, with how things are. The people are doomed because the only constant in the universe is change.

I fail to understand why someone who thinks of him or herself as a rationalist or an intellectual would start a conversation by labeling a non-religious movement a cult. That’s how John Horgan views us. In two posts, Science Cult and Is the Singularity a Cult, Horgan concludes that “the last thing humanity needs right now is an apocalyptic cult masquerading as science.” Pardon me, sir, but what are you talking about?

Transhumanist and their cousins singularists, as I like to call them, are not a cult. We just want to believe. Please – don’t associate us with religious kooks.

This stuff is true, if you also mention that soon to Kurzweil doesn’t mean soon to all of us and that time is relative and human beings are capable of seeing it on different scales:

Singularitarians such as Kurzweil insist that scientists will soon “reverse-engineer” the brain so that they understand exactly how it works. Many neuroscientists assume that, just as computers operate according to a machine code, so the brain’s performance must depend on a “neural code”; this is the set of rules, syntax or algorithms that transforms electrical impulses emitted by brain cells into perceptions, memories, meanings, intentions. Researchers are trying to decode the brain by probing it with ever-more-powerful technologies, such as magnetic-resonance imaging, positron-emission tomography and microelectrodes.

Cracking the neural code should yield all sorts of benefits. First, the brain’s programming tricks could be transferred to computers to make them smarter. Moreover, given the right interface, our brains and computers could communicate as readily as Macs and PCs. Eventually, our personal software could be extracted from our bodies for uploading into computers.

If a neural code exists, however, neuroscientists still have no idea what it is. Far from converging on a solution, scientists cannot agree whether information is represented primarily by signals from individual neurons, or brain cells, by oscillations of many neurons firing in tandem, by even higher-level waves of chaotic electrical activity sweeping through the brain or all of the above.

But, dear sir, where did the chip on your shoulder come from?

Also it pisses me off when you and your ilk–including Kurzweil–accuse me of “fearing” the Singularity or of merely dismissing it as “weird.” That’s bullshit. Sure, I make fun of you guys, because I’m trying to entertain people. But in my Spectrum article and even that crappy little Newsweek piece I also present specific counterarguments to the wild extrapolation upon which the Singularity is based. My first two books also have a detailed critique of the fields you think will produce the Singularity, including AI, neuroscience, genetics and so on. You Singularitarians, for all your vaunted cleverness,display an extraordinary and I can only assume willful ignorance of the complexities of biology, including how the genetic code produces bodies and how the neural code produces minds. When someone draws your attention to these issues, you respond with what you accuse critics of, ad hominem attacks. There’s the cult-like insularity and arrogance I talked about before. And that’s why you don’t deserve to be taken seriously.

Galileo Galilei wasn’t taken seriously but it turns out he was right. Ray Kurzweil may or may not be proved correct in time. If he is you lose nothing or everything. In the mean time, all you’ve done is a disservice to people who want to believe in something that might be bigger and better than remaining trapped on a planet full of pretty small amazingly petty minds. There is a universe out there to explore.

Personal Genome Project

I’ve signed up to participate in the Personal Genome Project.

We believe individuals from the general public have a vital role to play in making personal genomes useful. We are recruiting volunteers who are willing to share their genome sequence and many types of personal information with the research community and the general public, so that together we will be better able to advance our understanding of genetic and environmental contributions to human traits and to improve our ability to diagnose, treat, and prevent illness. Learn more about how to participate in the Personal Genome Project.

I wonder where the yellow brick road leads.

More on Singularity University; is the curriculum appropriate?

I blogged earlier this week about the launch announcement for Singularity University (and their web site promptly failed due to intense interest – it has since been fixed). Jamais Cascio (a futurist) posits that the curriculum of Singularity University isn’t much to his liking.

I find the name and slogan annoying, but let’s set those aside. I’m mostly astounded — and not in a good way — by the academic tracks. For those of you who haven’t yet ventured into SU’s ivy-covered marble halls, they are:

1. Future Studies & Forecasting
2. Networks & Computing Systems
3. Biotechnology & Bioinformatics
4. Nanotechnology
5. Medicine, Neuroscience & Human Enhancement
6. AI, Robotics, & Cognitive Computing
7. Energy & Ecological Systems
8. Space & Physical Sciences
9. Policy, Law & Ethics
10. Finance & Entrepreneurship

The message here? People don’t matter.

The first track is just Singularitarianism 101. The next seven cover technology-based industries — the mix of “here’s what you can invest in now!” with “here’s something that we can imagine” still to be determined. The last one, on “Finance & Entrepreneurship,” gives away the game with its introduction: “…how can we monetize this new knowledge of future technologies?”

Mr. Cascio goes on to suggest an alternative curriculum after noting that Singularity U is still a work in progress.

[Intro:] Future Studies & Forecasting:
With Ray K as the chancellor, you’re not going to get away without a Singularity 101 session — but this doesn’t need to be a full track.
1. Remaking Our Bodies:
   Understanding biotech, radical longevity, and enhancement.
2. Remaking Our World:
   Understanding energy, ecological systems, and nanotechnologies.
3. Remaking Our Minds:
   Understanding neurotech, cognitive systems, and AI.
4. Power and Conflict:
   Emphasizing the role that political choices have in shaping technology.
5. Scarcity, Trade, and Economics:
   How does scarcity manifest in an accelerating tech world? How do you deal with mass unemployment, technology diffusion, leapfrogging?
6. Demography, Aging, and Human Mobility:
   Shifts in population and cultural identity; understanding impact of extending life.
7. Human Identity and Communication:
   Understanding the changing nature of identity in a densely-linked world, looking at how different forms of identity clash.
8. Governance and Law:
   How does governance emerge? How are laws about technology shaped?
9. Ethics, Morality, and Unintended Consequences:
   How ethics emerges in a swiftly-changing environment; morality and technology; precautionary/proactionary principles.
10. Openness, Resilience, and Models for Dealing with Rapid Transformation:
    Open source, open access, open governance; understanding resilience.

I have to be honest – I like the suggested curriculum better than the stated curriculum. Transhumanism is not a mainstream idea. It isn’t a part of most people’s lexicon. The global socioeconomic ramifications of the inevitably of the singularity are massive and could kill billions of human beings. We are talking about socioeconomic shifts that will rock the foundations of our world. Think for a moment of a cyborg Osama bin Laden who can make backup copies of himself. Or imagine how career government positions will change when a career spans 950 years instead of 30. What could a bureaucrat do with all that time? How do we avoid creating societies that restrict longevity technology availability to the elite? Is high penetration and widespread availability of such technology even desirable? How do we ensure that no one clones Brittany Spears or Paris Hilton?

I hope that Singularity University is a massive success and I think the curriculum will have plenty of time to evolve and mature. I’m more excited by the possibilities and the interest than I am disappointed by the initial offering.