Solving problems in Iraq is a long-term proposition that will continue to be challenging in years and decades to come. America faces some tough choices. Some questions that will be painful to answer no matter what the answer is. What happens if we leave too early? We already know that:
The Shiite south — including Karbala, Najaf and Maysan provinces, which coalition forces made the first test cases for withdrawal — is now a virtual Militiastan, ruled by armed gangs and warlords playing the part of politicians. In Hilla, the Iraqi commander of an effective (and even rarer, non-sectarian) police unit that works closely with U.S. Special Forces told me this summer that local officials, including his governor, regularly call him to their offices to pressure him to incorporate more militia members into his ranks, even threatening him with dismissal. He has survived at least a half-dozen assassination attempts.
In Basra, Iraq’s second-largest city, where British forces have dramatically scaled back their patrols (as some withdrawal proponents would like to see U.S. troops do in other cities), the murder rate tripled this year and at least four Shiite militias are waging a bloody turf war. When British troops withdrew from the city of Amarah, militia loyalists ransacked their base and celebrated what they called a victory over “the occupier.”
Right now, Iraq is the wild west of the Middle East. Rule of law is practically non-existent in biggest population centers for many reasons. American troops can provide security very well, but there are not enough of them to do so everywhere all the time. Not even close. Does America want a draft? I don’t see that happening.
The Iraqi Army doesn’t work the same way as the U.S. military. The cultures are too different. Iraqi soldiers are much more casual and much less disciplined than we are. There are good Iraqi units out there, but they seem to be the exception rather than the rule. Militias provide a lot of the security for various neighborhoods in Baghdad, but they are incompatible with rule of law as envisioned by the planners and administrators who are trying to build a working democracy in the war-torn nation. This is mostly because the militias are motivated by religion and sect. Iraq lacks the nationalist drive and vision that keeps America glued together.
What’s needed? Strong secular leaders on the national and local level. When the United States was being formed, there was a great amount of debate between federalists and anti-federalists. The federalists won. In Iraq, a similar debate is taking place. In the next year, Iraqis will decide whether they want to split the country into three semi-autonomous regions - one for Shia, one for Kurds and one for Sunnis.
I don’t think Iraq is in freefall. Hope exists, and there are many brave Iraqis working to make things better. Ultimately it will be up to them to mold the direction Iraq will take. What will rise from the ashes of Saddam? That remains to be seen.
I’ve been here a year, and perhaps contributed a tiny drop in a giant bucket. I hope that in coming years, I will see more honesty from American leaders when it comes to our role in Iraq. We have a responsibility to stay and work with the fledgling Iraqi government until they ask us to leave. I would like to hear less glossing over of the horrible violence and more realistic statements explaining that Iraq’s current situation will take at least a generation to stabilize. The American people have a responsibility to support the legitimately elected government as long as is necessary to bring peace and stability to average Iraqis.
If we shy away from the truth, as ugly as it sometimes is, I believe we will be spitting in our own eye. We legally punish a parent who abandons a child. Iraq is our child now. We birthed her. Running away when things get tough isn’t the answer. If we run away I will consider it abandonment.
